Peaceful frontier
We regulate and move forward
Countries agree on shared rules and move forward together. AI develops fast, but with audits, safety limits and mechanisms to share what it produces.
A scenario, not a prediction
What is gained
- Science and medicine advance faster than in any other future.
- The energy transition is the fastest of the four.
- Inequality falls even as employment declines.
What is lost
- Coordinating everyone is slow and costly, and global institutions gain a lot of power.
- Fewer people work, and the question of meaning and purpose becomes central.
- The risk does not disappear: it depends on the rules continuing to be followed.
Assumptions of this future
- An international body audits the most capable models before deployment.
- The gains from automation are shared through taxes, dividends or public services.
- Countries share science instead of competing in secret.
- Cooperation prevents crises between blocs.
2026
Model summary for this decade
- AI capability
- ×1
- Robots in operation
- 5.1 million
- People in employment
- 58%
- Warming
- 1.4 °C
- Risk of catastrophe
- 0.1%
What happens this decade
- 2029 Data centers use more electricity than all of Japan does today.
- 2032 The planet passes 1.5 °C of warming.
The model records no milestones this decade.
2036
Humanity
Ten years of fast progress under shared rules. AI can already do 35% of human tasks and employment falls to 53%, but the gains are shared: inequality drops to 55/100.
Robots and technology
An international body audits every frontier model before deployment. There are 76 million robots in operation and data centers use 4,552 TWh a year.
Science
Science is the fastest of the four futures: the pace of discovery is already ×5.2 that of 2026, and results are shared between countries.
Planet
Science speeds up the transition: clean energy reaches 35% and warming is around 1.6 °C.
Politics
Power does not concentrate (42/100), but coordinating everyone is slow and costly. The cumulative risk of catastrophe stands at 1.3%.
What happens this decade
- 2042 AI can now do half of all human tasks.
- 2044 Half of all energy is now clean.
The model records no milestones this decade.
2046
Model summary for this decade
- AI capability
- ×28.6M
- Robots in operation
- 951 million
- People in employment
- 50%
- Warming
- 1.7 °C
- Risk of catastrophe
- 2.5%
What happens this decade
- 2047 One billion robots in operation.
The model records no milestones this decade.
2056
Humanity
AI can now do 67% of tasks. 48% of the working-age population has a job and, with guaranteed incomes, the question stops being what to live on and becomes what for.
Robots and technology
There are 5.1 billion robots in homes, fields, hospitals and factories.
Science
Science moves ×9.3 compared with 2026. Many diseases that kill today have treatments, and access is broad because advances are shared.
Planet
Most energy is now clean (78%) and warming reaches 1.8 °C.
Politics
The global institutions that oversee AI now hold a lot of power, and the question is who oversees them. The cumulative risk of catastrophe stands at 3.6%.
What happens this decade
- 2064 Science moves ten times faster than in 2026.
The model records no milestones this decade.
2066
Model summary for this decade
- AI capability
- ×23.5B
- Robots in operation
- 7.4 billion
- People in employment
- 48%
- Warming
- 1.9 °C
- Risk of catastrophe
- 4.6%
What happens this decade
- 2066 Nine in ten units of energy are clean.
The model records no milestones this decade.
2076
Model summary for this decade
- AI capability
- ×113B
- Robots in operation
- 7.9 billion
- People in employment
- 47%
- Warming
- 2.0 °C
- Risk of catastrophe
- 5.6%
What happens this decade
The model records no milestones this decade.
2086
Humanity
Work is optional for a large share of people: 47% of the working-age population has a job and inequality stays low (48/100).
Robots and technology
There are 8.0 billion robots and AI capability approaches its physical ceiling.
Science
Science moves ×11.0 compared with 2026, faster than in any other future.
Planet
Almost all energy is clean (99%) and warming levels off near 2.0 °C.
Politics
Coordination is still costly, but stable: power does not concentrate (43/100) and the cumulative risk stands at 6.6%.
What happens this decade
- 2086 World population peaks and begins to fall.
The model records no milestones this decade.
2096
Model summary for this decade
- AI capability
- ×523.2B
- Robots in operation
- 8.1 billion
- People in employment
- 47%
- Warming
- 2.0 °C
- Risk of catastrophe
- 7.6%
What happens this decade
- 2103 The planet passes 2 °C of warming.
The model records no milestones this decade.
2106
Model summary for this decade
- AI capability
- ×779.7B
- Robots in operation
- 8.2 billion
- People in employment
- 47%
- Warming
- 2.0 °C
- Risk of catastrophe
- 8.6%
What happens this decade
- 2115 CO₂ emissions reach practically zero.
The model records no milestones this decade.
2116
Model summary for this decade
- AI capability
- ×978.6B
- Robots in operation
- 8.2 billion
- People in employment
- 47%
- Warming
- 2.0 °C
- Risk of catastrophe
- 9.6%
What happens this decade
- 2121 The cumulative risk of catastrophe passes 10%.
The model records no milestones this decade.
2126
Humanity
A century later, material abundance is widely shared (inequality of 48/100) and the big question is meaning: what to do with a life in which work is no longer necessary. 47% of the working-age population has a job.
Robots and technology
There are 8.2 billion robots: machines do almost all physical work.
Science
It is the fastest science of the century (×11.4 compared with 2026): most of today’s diseases have treatments.
Planet
Warming ended up near 2.0 °C, slightly above Pause because of higher energy use.
Politics
The cumulative risk of catastrophe stands at 11%. It does not disappear: it depends on the rules continuing to be followed.
What happens this decade
The model records no milestones this decade.