Fracture

A global crisis that broke out in 2035 slows the economy. AI can do only 11% of tasks and employment barely changes (56%), but prices and insecurity do.

Chips are scarce and supply chains are broken. There are 21 million robots, concentrated in the blocs that control the factories.

Science fragments: each bloc researches on its own and shares little. The pace of discovery is ×2.1 that of 2026.

The transition stalls: clean energy barely reaches 25% and warming is around 1.6 °C.

The world splits into rival blocs. Power concentration rises to 56/100 and the cumulative risk of catastrophe stands at 4.7%.

After another crisis in 2050, inequality keeps rising (65/100). 50% of the working-age population has a job.

The recovery brings robots: there are 304 million robots in operation.

There is progress, but regional: the pace of science is ×3.4 that of 2026 and the blocs do not share results.

Crises slow the transition: clean energy reaches 43%, still less than half. Warming reaches 1.9 °C.

Conflict raises the cumulative risk of catastrophe to 12%. Power keeps concentrating (65/100).

Half of all tasks are now automatable (50%), late and unevenly: inequality stands at 69/100.

There are 3.9 billion robots, mostly in the blocs that won the latest crises.

Science advances divided into blocs: ×5.0 compared with 2026.

Clean energy arrives late (73%) and warming, at 2.2 °C, already exceeds that of the futures with peace.

Power is highly concentrated (77/100). The cumulative risk of catastrophe stands at 23%.

A century later there is less employment (37%) and more inequality (72/100) than in 2026.

AI finally matures, in few hands. There are 6.7 billion robots.

Science moves more slowly than in the futures with peace: ×6.4 compared with 2026.

Warming reaches 2.4 °C, more than in the futures with peace.

Another global crisis breaks out. The cumulative risk of catastrophe, 35%, is among the highest of the four futures, driven more by conflict than by AI.